Denominations become self-perpetuating. They exist to exist. To survive. But as we’ve all seen from the TV show Survivor, once everyone gets into survival mode things start getting ugly.
When denominations and denominational entities begin to exist for themselves, for their own preservation, the denomination is in decline. When denominational leaders (the ones we used to call “servants”) begin acting in self-preserving ways the denomination is in decline. Some people will tell you that the problem begins with the denominational entities and flows down to the churches. Others will counter that unhealthy churches make up unhealthy denominations. Reality is that the relationship flows both ways.
The Southern Baptist Convention is in decline. It hardly matters that “membership” is up if every other indicator is down - including weekly attendance, baptisms and the percentages given to maintain the denomination and its ministries. Can it turn around and will it?
I am, by nature, an optimist. The glass is almost always half full. In fact, I often wish I was a postmillennialist. But it will probably come as little surprise to know that I am not very hopeful when it comes to the future of the SBC.
I think we are too institutionalized. Adrian Rogers once called the Cooperative Program our sacred cow. If it was a sacred cow then it has nearly become a fourth person in the Trinity today.
Some of our leaders share in concerns about what we are becoming and have become, but most are too invested to do anything that would lead to substantive change. If the structure of our denomination were to radically change then their jobs might change with it, so there is often too much at stake for them.
Some of my blogging friends do not believe the SBC can change apart from those leaders taking the lead. They also believe that it won’t happen, so they have left blogging about “Baptist” stuff altogether. I don’t particularly blame them.
But if things continue as they have been for the past 25 or so years what will become of the SBC? What follows are some of my thoughts. I’m not a prophet or the son of a prophet, but I think I can follow some trends and perhaps draw some reasonable conclusions from them.
Let me begin with the implications I see in the dwindling attendance numbers at annual conventions and other SBC events. If the denomination continues to decline the Baptist Identity folks will win/maintain control of the convention because they will be the only ones left who care about it enough to hang around. Of course, if the convention continues to dwindle they may be left with very little to hold on to, but have it they will, nonetheless.
If that happens we can probably expect to see much of what we’ve seen for the last 30 or so years. The same old same old evangelism conferences, the same old same old pastor’s conferences, and the same old same old programs. They will likely continue their present effectiveness as well. I don’t think the SBC will thrive with thinking that says we need to keep doing what we’re doing (or go back to doing it the way we used to), but to try harder. Honestly, that is what we are already doing - or at least trying to preach ourselves into doing - witness more, baptize more, learn more theology. Do what we do, just do more of it and with more passion and energy. I don’t know. Maybe that will work. It hasn’t in my lifetime, but perhaps things will change. I’m not hopeful. But the SBC has a long history of revivalist thinking, so I may well be in the minority (just keep doing what we do and pray for a mighty outpouring of the Spirit in revival and we’ll be back in business).
Meanwhile there are churches needing assistance in other ways and they aren’t getting it because we’ve allocated all of our resources to maintaining what we already do. If we quit doing it this way there are a number of older folks who are used to it this way (and who typically give most of the money and are the majority of those who even show up) who will complain about it. Go ahead. Just try to do something radically different with your state’s evangelism conference. Or skip it one year for a completely different approach. You’ll be able to hear the wails and cries and complaints from a thousand miles away.
Our state conventions can’t all afford their own Catalyst conference, or Q Conference, or Desiring God conference. So we’ll just line up the same speakers we had at our evangelism conference/pastor’s conference three years ago and have another go at it. Meanwhile, all of the attendees laugh at Junior Hill’s jokes and get excited by Herb Revis’s fiery presentation and homespun stories, and return to our churches where attendance, baptisms and giving continue largely to decline (and those that are growing are almost exclusively doing so at the expense of the dying Methodist church or the troubled Baptist church down the street).
My own opinion is that we neither want to re-think how we do what we do, nor are we able to. And the results will continue to show as more and more choose to stay away from the things we do.
Of course, a denomination is neither sustained nor doomed based upon attendance at denominational events, but people do often vote by their absence and they are voting in the droves. Without some form of personal contact with the entities we help support how long will that support last?
Next up: what about the money?
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